The recovery of Australian wine exports following China's removal of tariffs now faces new uncertainties due to declining global consumption, according to Wine Australia, the country's wine regulatory body. While the lifting of trade restrictions led to a sharp increase in shipments to the Chinese market, it remains unclear whether demand will stay strong once buyers have finished restocking.

Australia's wine industry, one of the world's largest exporters, suffered a major setback in 2020 when China, its primary market, imposed tariffs that blocked the import of bottled wine. This measure worsened the issue of oversupply and falling grape prices, forcing producers to remove millions of vines. Major companies such as Treasury Wines and Pernod Ricard announced asset sales in Australia last year. However, after diplomatic relations between Beijing and Canberra improved, the tariffs were lifted on March 29, 2023, allowing trade to resume.

Between then and the end of the year, Australia exported 83 million liters of wine to China, valued at 902 million Australian dollars ($562 million USD), reaching a monthly pace similar to pre-tariff levels. Despite this rebound, Wine Australia's research manager, Peter Bailey, noted that future growth is not guaranteed, as wine consumption in China has declined compared to pre-restriction levels. He stated that more time is needed to determine the stable export volume to the market once the initial restocking phase ends.

Meanwhile, shipments to the rest of the world continued to decline, with a 13% drop in value to 1.64 billion Australian dollars and a 7% decrease in volume to 565 million liters in 2024. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine consumption fell in 2023 to its lowest level since 1996, with China experiencing a sharper decline than other countries.